For decades the principal concern of "estate planning" has been to minimize taxes due at death. In recent years (since the estate tax level began to first creep, and then rush, upward beginning in 1998) tax considerations have become less central to estate planning. Those changes, and the remote possibility that the estate tax exemption level might drop back to $1,000,000 in 2011, have made uncertainty the biggest problem to tackle these days. How can you plan in a shifting estate tax environment?

First determine if you are concerned about estate taxes at all. If not, you can make your plans based on what you want to accomplish—and not spend time, money or energy on planning for a tax that your estate will simply not bear.

If your entire estate—including life insurance and the cash value of your retirement plans—is less than $1,000,000 then you stop worrying about estate taxes. Even if Congress makes no changes, your estate will pay no tax on your death—and Arizona, like most states, effectively repealed its state estate tax by failing to make changes after federal law revisions.

Incidentally, even though your estate may not be taxable it still might be larger than average. Slightly more than 1% of decedents would have to file estate tax returns at the $1,000,000 threshold.

If your estate is larger than that, but still less than $2,000,000, you can worry—but not much. You will not be subjected to any estate tax if you die between now and 2011, and virtually no one believes that Congress will let the law drop the estate tax level back below the current exemption level.

If your estate is worth more than $2,000,000, there’s some good news mixed in with the bad: you are among the less than 1% of the population who needs to worry about estate taxation. And you are likely to see relief even from the current level of burden, as Congress is discussing lifting the limit to $5,000,000—which would mean that fewer than 3,000 estates each year would pay any tax.

After reviewing the real likelihood of your estate paying any tax, you may still feel like you need to make plans. If you are married, one easy choice is to establish a "credit shelter" trust arrangement—sometimes referred to as a "decedent’s trust" or an "A/B" trust division. Even better for most people, you might look into a "disclaimer" trust, allowing the surviving spouse to make decisions about estate taxes after the death of the first spouse. This approach can double the amount that escapes taxation.

Still worried about estate taxes? Consider regular gifts to your children and grandchildren, or charitable bequests (and gifts). Now focus on what you actually want to accomplish with your estate plan.

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